If you mostly use fractional or decimal odds, the term moneyline can feel unfamiliar. It is simply another way to show how a bookmaker prices an outcome and what a winning bet might return.
This guide explains how moneyline odds work, how to convert them to decimal, how payouts are calculated, and what implied probability means. You will also see how moneyline compares with point spreads and totals, why prices vary between bookmakers, and how these odds look in football and tennis.
Understanding the numbers first is the best way to manage your play if you decide to bet. So, what do moneyline odds actually tell you?
How Do Moneyline Odds Work?
Moneyline odds use positive (+) and negative (−) numbers to show the estimated chance of an outcome and the potential return. They are common in North America, though some UK sites also offer them.
- A positive number, such as +150, shows the profit from a £100 stake if the selection wins. For example, +150 means a £100 stake could return £150 profit, plus the original £100.
- A negative number, such as -200, shows how much must be staked to target a £100 profit. With -200, it would take a £200 stake to aim for £100 profit, plus the £200 stake back if it wins.
In short, bigger positive numbers indicate a lower estimated chance, and bigger negative numbers indicate a higher estimated chance according to the pricing. Prefer working in decimals instead? The conversion is quick.
How Do I Convert Moneyline To Decimal Odds?
Moneyline is easiest to compare when converted to decimal, which shows total return per £1 staked, including the stake. The method depends on whether the moneyline is positive or negative.
How To Convert Positive Moneyline
For positive odds, such as +200, use:
1 + (moneyline / 100)
Example: +200 becomes 1 + 200/100 = 3.0.
How To Convert Negative Moneyline
For negative odds, such as -150, use the absolute value:
1 + (100 / |moneyline|)
Example: -150 becomes 1 + 100/150 = 1.67.
Once you can see moneyline in decimal form, working out a potential return is straightforward.
How Do I Calculate Payout From Moneyline Odds?
The total return includes both profit and the original stake, and the approach varies by sign.
- Positive odds (for example, +200): multiply the stake by the moneyline divided by 100, then add the stake. A £10 stake at +200 returns £10 × (200/100) + £10 = £30 in total.
- Negative odds (for example, -150): divide the stake by the absolute value of the moneyline, multiply by 100, then add the stake. A £10 stake at -150 returns £10 × (100/150) + £10 = £16.67 in total.
Understanding the return is one side of the coin. The other is what the odds say about the estimated chance of the outcome.
What Is The Implied Probability Of Moneyline Odds?
Implied probability translates odds into a percentage view of how likely an outcome is considered to be within the pricing.
- Positive odds (+A): probability = 100 / (A + 100) × 100.
Example: +200 gives 100 / (200 + 100) × 100 = 33.33%. - Negative odds (-A): probability = A / (A + 100) × 100.
Example: -150 gives 150 / (150 + 100) × 100 = 60.00%.
These figures reflect the bookmaker’s view in price terms. They also connect to a key concept in odds, the built-in margin.
Do Moneyline Odds Include The Bookmaker Margin?
Yes. Moneyline odds include a margin, often called the overround, which helps the bookmaker manage risk over a book of bets. Because of this, the combined implied probabilities for all outcomes usually add up to more than 100%.
A simple two-outcome example shows this. If both sides are -110, the implied probability for one side is 110 / (110 + 100) × 100 = 52.38%. With two outcomes priced the same, the total is about 104.76%, so the margin is roughly 4.76%. That small difference is why the price you see is a touch shorter than a theoretical no-margin price.
Recognising the margin makes it easier to see why the same market can be priced differently across firms.
Why Do Moneyline Prices Differ Between Bookmakers?
Bookmakers build prices from their own information, trading models, and appetite for risk. Team news, injuries, travel schedules, playing conditions, and recent performance can shift a price, and firms will weigh these factors differently. They also monitor betting patterns and may adjust if too much money arrives on one side.
Timing matters too. Early prices can move as new information appears, while live markets react to what is happening on the pitch or court. Margins vary by event and by bookmaker, and rounding choices or promotions can nudge prices further apart.
All of this means two sites can show different moneyline numbers for the same match at the same moment. With the pricing landscape in mind, it helps to understand how moneyline compares to other common bet types.
Moneyline Versus Point Spread And Totals
A moneyline bet focuses only on who wins. If the chosen team or player wins the match, the bet settles as a winner according to the odds.
A point spread applies a handicap. The favourite must win by more than the stated spread, while the other side can be a winning selection even if they lose, provided the margin of defeat is within the spread. For instance, with a -3.5 spread, the favourite needs to win by 4 or more.
Totals, often called over or under, ignore the winner and look at the combined score. If a football total is set at 2.5, over means 3 or more goals, while under means 2 or fewer.
With the basics set, the next step is to see how moneyline can be used across different bet types.
Common Moneyline Bet Types
There are several ways moneyline odds appear, from single selections to live markets and combinations.
Straight Moneyline Bets
This is the simplest form. Choose one team or player to win. If they win, the bet pays out based on the moneyline price.
In-Play Moneyline Bets
In-play moneyline markets update during the event. Prices can change quickly after key moments such as a goal, break of serve, or red card, and can be temporarily suspended while the market is reviewed.
Moneyline In Multi-Selection Bets
Moneyline selections can be combined in an accumulator or similar multi. Each leg has its own moneyline, and the overall return depends on all selections being correct. One losing leg means the multiple does not pay.
Finally, here is how those prices look in popular sports.
Examples Of Moneyline Odds In Popular Sports
Different sports present moneyline in slightly different contexts. Below are two common examples, football (soccer) and tennis, to show how the figures appear.
Football (Soccer)
In football, a moneyline can be a three-way market with Team A, Team B, and the draw. If Team A is +180, Team B is +130, and the draw is +220, those numbers show the profit for a £100 stake on each outcome, plus the stake back if it wins. Some competitions also offer two-way markets that settle on extra time or penalties, but the standard league match market includes the draw.
Tennis
In tennis, the moneyline is two-way because matches do not end in a draw. If Player 1 is -160 and Player 2 is +140, the negative figure indicates the selection priced as more likely to win. The positive number shows the potential profit on a £100 stake, while the negative figure shows how much needs to be staked to target £100 profit.
If you choose to place any bets, set limits that fit your circumstances and only stake what you can afford to lose. If gambling starts to affect your well-being or finances, seek support early. Independent organisations such as GamCare and GambleAware provide free, confidential help.
Understanding how moneyline odds are expressed, converted, and priced makes it easier to compare markets and make clear, informed choices.
**The information provided in this blog is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as betting advice or a guarantee of success. Always gamble responsibly.